The United Kingdom has become the first country to vote to leave the modern European Union (EU), but the debate over Europe and the Union is far from over. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina explains four forces that will determine the future of the EU. Published June 24, 2016
- Euroscepticism
- Economic Instability
- The Migrant Crisis
- Terrorism
Even before the UK "Brexit vote" on June 23, 2016, there was much "Euroskepticism" in the EU:
See Euroskepticism Beyond Brexit: Significant opposition in key European countries to an ever closer EU, Pew Research Center release, June 7, 2016 (pdf). The 10 countries (see list in Chart above) included in the survey account for 80% of the EU-28 population and 82% of the EU’s GDP. A median of 70% in the nine EU nations surveyed outside the UK, "believe it would be bad for the EU if the UK decided to depart. Only 16% say it would be a good thing."
UPDATE: "... In the UK, it is clear that numerous individuals were concealing their true preferences about Leave vs. Remain. The elite in the UK, and the EU as a whole, mounted a campaign of insult and intimidation. They had no positive message, but engaged in fear-mongering and ad hominem. Any brave soul who put his or her head above the parapet was immediately subjected to a barrage of invective. So many people stayed hunkered down, and concealed their preferences ... This means that the EU is particularly vulnerable to preference falsification at present. It is also acutely vulnerable to a shattering of its brittle structure when those preferences are revealed. For this reason, I would say that the expectation should be that the EU will muddle through, but there is a substantial tail risk that it will shatter into 28 pieces. And when it does, it will not go with a whimper, but a bang."--Brexit: A Case Study in Preference Falsification | StreetwiseProfessor.com
UPDATE: Brexit Aftershocks: 'You're Lying to Us!' | spiegel.de: "... jocularity and nonchalance he otherwise exudes has vanished. Juncker these days is ill-tempered and irascible. After the summit comes to an end, a reporter from Austrian public broadcaster ORF becomes the focus of his frustration. She asks a question about CETA, the already negotiated free-trade agreement with Canada. The day before, Juncker has told European leaders that he would like to enact the treaty without the involvement of national parliaments in EU member states--thus feeding into all the stereotypes out there of an autocratic, elitist Brussels ... Now, the EU is stumbling from crisis to crisis ..."
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| Pew Research Center survey conducted in 10 EU nations among 10,491 respondents from April 4 to May 12, 2016 |
UPDATE: "... In the UK, it is clear that numerous individuals were concealing their true preferences about Leave vs. Remain. The elite in the UK, and the EU as a whole, mounted a campaign of insult and intimidation. They had no positive message, but engaged in fear-mongering and ad hominem. Any brave soul who put his or her head above the parapet was immediately subjected to a barrage of invective. So many people stayed hunkered down, and concealed their preferences ... This means that the EU is particularly vulnerable to preference falsification at present. It is also acutely vulnerable to a shattering of its brittle structure when those preferences are revealed. For this reason, I would say that the expectation should be that the EU will muddle through, but there is a substantial tail risk that it will shatter into 28 pieces. And when it does, it will not go with a whimper, but a bang."--Brexit: A Case Study in Preference Falsification | StreetwiseProfessor.com
UPDATE: Brexit Aftershocks: 'You're Lying to Us!' | spiegel.de: "... jocularity and nonchalance he otherwise exudes has vanished. Juncker these days is ill-tempered and irascible. After the summit comes to an end, a reporter from Austrian public broadcaster ORF becomes the focus of his frustration. She asks a question about CETA, the already negotiated free-trade agreement with Canada. The day before, Juncker has told European leaders that he would like to enact the treaty without the involvement of national parliaments in EU member states--thus feeding into all the stereotypes out there of an autocratic, elitist Brussels ... Now, the EU is stumbling from crisis to crisis ..."
EU political contagion risks, via the @EurasiaGroup, as the Brexit referendum fuels Euroskeptic populism: pic.twitter.com/8QoW6xh4CL— Ian Talley (@IanTalley) June 29, 2016
Rushing to exit? Euroskeptic parties clamor for EU membership referendums at home https://t.co/mEtCoHIbcz pic.twitter.com/mjWgdT475k— RT (@RT_com) June 24, 2016
The European Union is failing too many people and needs urgent reform. https://t.co/ZoZelHJ8wK pic.twitter.com/MTlTfHZQMy— NYT Opinion (@nytopinion) July 3, 2016
Destructive creation of the European Union. https://t.co/RPXW6l2fJU @rorysutherland @ProfSteveKeen @g_m_hodgson @Frances_Coppola— Evonomics (@EvonomicsMag) July 3, 2016
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