Above video: Asia Times Columnist David Goldman on "Bloomberg Surveillance" August 12, 2016. See also 6 Factors That Point to Global Recession in 2016 | Investopedia.com.
"I'm not predicting a recession any time soon, in fact our early warning indicators are only now getting us a little bit of our antenna up. One of them is the unemployment rate versus 12 month moving average. For very understandable economic reasons, you never get a recession with the unemployment rate below it's 12 month moving average. Well, it's about to go above. There's a 9 basis point difference between the unemployment rate and its 12 month moving average. It doesn't guarantee anything, but unless that crosses over, you really can't have a recession."--Jeffrey Gundlach, August 19, 2016Gundlach's 3 Favorite Recession Indicators Say Everything's Fine—For Now: The first is when the annual change in America's index of leading economic indicators goes into negative territory. The second is unemployment rate (see quote above) and the third, Gundlach's 'granddaddy' of recession signals: When the quarterly unemployment rate breaches its three-year moving average, that's a sure sign that a recession has arrived: "In fact it is so eerily predictive of the onset of a recession when [the quarterly unemployment rate] goes above its 3-year moving average that one almost thinks it is secretly the indicator the [Bureau of Labor Statistics] is using to define recession," said Gundlach. "It is so amazingly accurate." This indicator isn't going to rise above that three-year moving average for the next year, barring the onset of a substantial, negative economic shock, he said, and as such, this indicator "doesn't say recession for the U.S."--Bloomberg.com May 6, 2016
See also: Jim Grant: "This Will Turn Out To Be Very Bad For Many People" | ZeroHedge.com
Tweets about global recession#China's "SOE-led investment only exacerbates problems" of excess capacity, low productivity https://t.co/uk6pYXk12P pic.twitter.com/89pqhmBy2A— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) August 16, 2016
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