Video above published Dec 22, 2016 by L2inc.com. Scott Galloway's 2016 Digital Winners & Losers and some 2017 predictions.
"We were right on:
- Wearables and 3D printing - calling them out as headfakes months before their respective stocks plunged.
- Jet.com. The startup was purchased by Walmart as an acquihire, just as we forecast on Winners & Losers last October.
- Messaging. Brands are flocking to messaging platforms, particularly Facebook Messenger, just as we predicted in March.
More in the video and transcript below.
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| Without Google and Facebook, digital advertising is in decline (source: L2inc.com video above) |
- Google 41%
- Facebook 17%
- Microsoft 4%
- Yahoo 3%
- Twitter 2%
- Others 33%
YouTube.com auto-generated transcipt:
0:02 At the end of the year, we look back at our predictions for 2016.
0:06 In fact, one of the biggest losers of '16 was wearables.
0:10 When Fitbit emerged from its 2015 IPO with a $4 billion valuation we weren't convinced, and neither was the market.
0:18 With Fitbit stock at record lows,
0:19 it looks like we got this one right.
0:21 Last January we also predicted headwinds for 3D printing and VR.
0:26 3D printing - that's my favorite.
0:28 Build anything you want, right away, real-time?
0:30 Well, guess what. We have the world's best 3D printer right now - and it's called China.
0:35 The next big headfake?
0:37 Virtual reality.
0:39 For $600 you can buy the Facebook Oculus.
0:42 Porn and gaming may take off here, but that's it.
0:44 3D printer stocks have plunged to record lows
0:46 and the Oculus CEO's move to a new project at Facebook is the death knell for virtual reality.
0:54 In October 2015, we predicted Jet.com was a loser
0:57 and would be bought as an acquihire.
0:59 Our prediction: Jet.com has absolutely no hope of success against Amazon.
1:04 Walmart in fact acquired the company in August,
1:07 at a cost of - get this - $12.5 million per employee and a 6x multiple on revenues.
1:15 At the time of the acquisition, Jet was spending $5 million per week on advertising
1:19 and would be operating at a loss until they reached $20 billion in sales, with 15 million paying customers.
1:27 So Walmart paid $3.5 billion for a company that needs to reach $20 billion in sales to break even.
1:33 This is what you call panic. In a digital age, that costs shareholders billions.
1:38 This will be one of the biggest writedowns in retail history.
1:42 So our prediction on Slack?
1:43 Too early to tell.
1:44 In September 2015, we posited that email for internal communications would be replaced by Slack.
1:51 So we hear a lot about the death of email, but who's the executioner?
1:55 One culprit might be Slack.
1:57 The platform's recent integration with Google Drive makes clear that it's gaining momentum.
2:02 However, there are still 625 million active business email accounts.
2:06 Slack recently added video calling capability,
2:08 suggesting they're not just going after email, but broader workplace communications.
2:13 On messaging, we definitely got the trend correct.
2:16 In March, we predicted that messaging was the next frontier for brands.
2:20 What is the final frontier?
2:21 We don't know, but the next frontier: messaging.
2:26 We've already seen that prediction take hold,
2:27 particularly on Facebook Messenger,
2:30 which an increasing number of brands are using to connect with their customers.
2:34 And the celebrity death match for '17?
2:36 Facebook's Instagram taking on Snapchat.
2:39 Our prediction?
2:39 Snapchat will lose value in 2017 at the hands of the most agile, impressive company in the world - Facebook.
2:49 We did in fact predict Facebook would expedite the death of the industrial ad complex.
2:53 The advertising industrial complex is coming to an end.
2:57 Advertising has become a tax that poor people pay.
3:00 For twenty bucks a year, we should be able to opt out of your sh*tty advertising, Facebook.
3:06 News of this year is that the firewall of live TV, specifically sports, has been breached.
3:12 It's clear that two players own the future: Google and Facebook.
3:14 If you look at the incremental revenue Facebook and Google each command,
3:20 it adds up to 103%.
3:22 You think, wait, that doesn't make any sense.
3:23 It does because, sans Google and Facebook, digital marketing is now officially in decline.
3:30 .....
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