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2017-09-22

MacroView: Election in Germany (video), ECB, EU, Spain, IMF & Greece

Germany election 2017 UPDATE 24 Sep 2017: Far-right AfD stuns German establishment by finishing third with 13.5% and will enter parliament for the first time, but Merkel wins fourth term--"Of course we had hoped for a slightly better result." said Angela Merkel, who must now form a coalition government, a potentially difficult task that could take months trying to woo unwilling potential coalition partners.

The Latest: German election: Merkel vows to form stable govt | The Washington Post: "Center-left challenger Martin Schulz, whose Social Democrats were the junior partners in Merkel’s outgoing government, said shortly after exit polls showed his party headed for a historic election defeat Sunday that it would go into opposition. In a television discussion involving major party leaders, he accused Merkel of conducting a “scandalous” campaign that avoided debate and created “a vacuum” that the nationalist Alternative for Germany party filled."

The German Election Explained

Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video published Sep 18, 2017: German voters head to the polls this Sunday in an election that determines whether Chancellor Angela Merkel remains at the helm of Europe’s biggest economic power. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina explains how the election will be won and why the race for third place is all important. See also: German election polls 2017 | FT.com

Germany's AfD Tests Merkel's Leadership, Says Posen

Bloomberg.com video published Sep 19, 2017: Adam Posen, president at Peterson Institute for International Economics, previews the upcoming German election. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

How German Elections Can Influence the ECB's (European Central Bank) Future:

Video above published Aug 18, 2017, by Bloomberg.com: Themis Themistocleous, head of European investments at UBS Wealth Management, explains how choices made by voters in the German election on 24 Sept 2017, can impact the European Central Bank (ECB). He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close." See also:
"It's been a lost decade for investors in the world's banks. For Europe's lenders in particular, the wounds are far from healed."--Bloomberg.com
"The IMF remained upbeat about the soundness of the European banking system ... this lapse was largely due to the IMF’s readiness to take the reassurances of national and euro area authorities at face value"--IEO report, infra
IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro and apologises for the immolation of Greece | telegraph.co.uk: "The three main bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland were unprecedented in scale and character. The trio were each allowed to borrow over 2,000pc of their allocated quota – more than three times the normal limit – and accounted for 80pc of all lending by the fund between 2011 and 2014 ... “Before the launch of the euro, the IMF’s public statements tended to emphasise the advantages of the common currency," ... Some [IMF] staff members warned that the design of the euro was fundamentally flawed but they were overruled." (emphasis added)

The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal | ieo-imf.org executive summary excerpt:
"The IMF’s handling of the euro area crisis raised issues of accountability and transparency, which helped create the perception that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] treated Europe differently. Conducting this evaluation proved challenging. Some documents on sensitive issues were prepared outside the regular, established channels; the IEO faced a lack of clarity in its terms of reference on what it could or could not evaluate; and there was no clear protocol on the modality of interactions between the IEO and IMF staff. The IMF did not complete internal reviews involving euro area programs on time, as mandated, which led to missed opportunities to draw timely lessons." (emphasis added)
Press release (highlighting added):


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