Scott Galloway looks back at his 2017 predictions as well as his predictions for 2018: the breakup of big tech will begin, Snap will be acquired, and Alexa will emerge as the iPhone of the next decade. Song: Beck - Heart Is A Drum. L2inc.com video above published Jan 11, 2018.
Transcript via YouTube.com (auto-generated, unedited):
00:00 [Music]
00:01 we hold our feet to the fire and revisit
00:04 our January 2017 predictions regarding
00:07 the upcoming year a prediction we made
00:10 Twitter will increase in relevance and
00:12 decrease in value sort of right sort of
00:14 wrong Twitter's gained relevance but its
00:16 stock is also a prediction Verizon will
00:19 walk from or shave 1 billion dollars
00:22 plus from the purchase price of Yahoo as
00:24 they recognize they may be inviting mr.
00:27 death the mother of all liabilities into
00:29 their house an honourable mentioned
00:31 Verizon shaved 350 million dollars from
00:34 the purchase price of Yahoo and the deal
00:37 closed prediction hacking phishing
00:39 schemes and ransomware will reach crisis
00:42 proportions and take center stage in
00:44 Congress so we got this one right
00:46 Equifax uber the SEC and Chipotle among
00:49 others were hacked
00:51 seriously hacked prediction will see
00:54 enormous right downs from Unilever and
00:56 Walmart's acquisition of Dollar Shave
00:57 Club and jet comm respectively wrong
01:01 mostly Walmart's acquisition of jet comm
01:03 was not only not a write down but it's
01:06 likely turning out to be a genius
01:08 acquisition was jet comm worth three
01:11 billion dollars no was it worth more
01:13 than three billion dollars to Walmart
01:15 yes Walmart likely the retailer up 2017
01:19 has been able to report your on your
01:21 ecommerce gains of 60 plus percent
01:23 likely adding tens of billions of
01:25 dollars to its market capitalization
01:27 prediction Amazon having bested Apple
01:30 and Google and voice and machine
01:32 learning will run a successful test for
01:34 0 click retail we're a little early on
01:36 this but it's looking good Amazon Prime
01:39 wardrobe sounds close you can try on and
01:41 decide if you want to buy the firm is
01:43 now the fourth most valuable company in
01:45 the world and its stock was up 50
01:48 percent in 17 prediction Netflix becomes
01:50 the operating system for the other
01:52 screen in our life television and
01:54 becomes the fifth Horseman share price
01:56 doubles or is acquired by one of the
01:58 horsemen or Disney we were mostly right
02:01 here Netflix is becoming the operating
02:03 system for television and its stock was
02:05 up 50% in 17 prediction Pinterest value
02:09 will fall 50 plus percent as week
02:11 management and turnover
02:12 again to Matassa ties we got this wrong
02:14 we don't know what the value is it's a
02:16 private company but it wasn't cut in
02:17 half prediction Airbnb becomes the most
02:20 disruptive private company other than
02:22 Amazon and business and has the IPO
02:24 everyone that's expecting from snap by
02:26 the end of the year the firm is worth
02:28 more than uber sort of not really at the
02:30 beginning of 2017
02:32 uber was valued four times Airbnb it our
02:35 B&B; is next round may approach or even
02:37 past the most recent valuation on uber
02:39 it's been a great year for Airbnb and 81
02:42 for uber prediction we work losses
02:44 seventy-five percent of its value from
02:46 peak 16 billion and becomes a poster
02:49 child of unicorn mania wrong we work has
02:51 announced a bunch of innovative pilots
02:53 that are going to extend the consensual
02:55 hallucination between the firm and the
02:57 markets prediction snapchat will not go
02:59 public as it becomes evident they are
03:01 losing tractions at the hands of
03:03 instagram so so snap did get out but its
03:06 stock has been cut in half and is
03:09 screwed those are cones for the five top
03:11 non gaming apps globally and all four
03:13 have their guns squarely pointed at what
03:17 is the name of that company snap and now
03:22 our predictions for 2018 the break-up a
03:25 big tech begins wage growth fails to
03:27 materialize and someone does the math
03:29 highlighting that the heirs of Walden
03:31 Bezos Zuckerberg Gates Brin and page
03:33 will soon be worth more than two-thirds
03:36 of US households combined prediction
03:39 Amazon passes Apple and value prediction
03:42 Alexa emerges as the iPhone of the next
03:44 decade fueling Amazon to sent past 1
03:46 trillion in market capitalization voice
03:49 makes the mobile Wars look like a border
03:51 skirmish as big tech in the media
03:53 industry tried to establish their place
03:54 in an increasingly Amazon world
03:57 cryptocurrencies crash by over 50% in a
04:01 month that's pretty that's a pretty
04:02 wimpy prediction but it's likely going
04:04 to happen in the first quarter it will
04:06 then rock it past 20,000 dollars as
04:08 crypto specifically Bitcoin has become a
04:11 Chaos proxy and we are headed towards a
04:12 constitutional crisis which will confirm
04:15 the Millennials are smart to not have
04:17 trust in their institutions or the
04:19 Federal Reserve prediction the ad tech
04:22 landscape goes from bad to worse is the
04:24 industry's duopoly Facebook and
04:26 Google cements the industry structural
04:28 decline large communications
04:30 conglomerates had twenty to fifty
04:31 percent of their value when their growth
04:33 engines digital agencies stall as again
04:36 the duopoly begins making online
04:38 creative and value-added services less
04:41 valuable twitter snap BuzzFeed and
04:44 Pinterest are acquired or valued in
04:46 subsequent rounds for between 25 and 50
04:49 percent less than their market highs has
04:51 all continued to underwhelm at the hands
04:53 of the duopoly almost every digital
04:56 marketing content darling refinery29
04:58 AppNexus etc becomes a distressed asset
05:02 M&A; activity it's a fever pitch of
05:04 horizontal and vertical tie ups as
05:06 industry bulks up in response again to
05:10 Amazon online furniture firm wayfarer
05:12 shares
05:13 crash a dot-com business model implodes
05:15 as weak customer loyalty Amazon private
05:18 label furniture brands and strong
05:20 offline brands including William Sonoma
05:21 and RH take the firm to the woodshed
05:24 this firm wafer is beginning to look
05:26 increasingly like blue apron Amazon
05:29 acquires either Nordstrom Kara for won't
05:32 acquire Target Walmart establishes a
05:35 leadership position in online grocery
05:37 with pickup everyone else including
05:39 Target and amazon has wrongly focused on
05:41 delivery this puts even more pressure on
05:44 traditional brick-and-mortar retail and
05:46 forces Kroger to make a big acquisition
05:47 my guests instacart are possibly UK best
05:50 okata
05:51 large CPG firms will either merge or
05:54 forward integrate and acquire retail as
05:56 they realize a voice-controlled world is
05:58 really really bad for them disney
06:00 becomes the fifth Horseman disney is the
06:03 only old economy firm with the scale
06:05 stones access to capital and leadership
06:08 to develop a prime like offering disney
06:10 will offer a prime Netflix like member
06:12 offering that will include a fat bundle
06:14 of video programming and preferred
06:16 access to other assets including cruises
06:19 parks and the likes the stock
06:21 outperforms its peers and becomes the
06:23 first old economy firm to take on big
06:26 tech Facebook stock Peaks the suck
06:29 becomes the unwitting poster child for
06:31 the movement against big tech as a
06:33 series of half-measures in response to
06:35 the Russian interference and the launch
06:37 of a gateway drug a social media
06:39 platform for kids
06:40 furnishes reputation is the most
06:42 tone-deaf CEO in tech business will
06:44 continue to grow but multiple erosion
06:47 will occur due to the threat of
06:48 regulation a nation in Europe bans one
06:51 or more of the four opting for the
06:52 Chinese model of stealing the IP
06:54 propping up a local entrepreneur and
06:57 capturing the value domestically times
06:59 2018 Person of the Year Robert S
07:02 Mulliken third Marine Division Vietnam
07:05 1969 no bone spurs and finally the world
07:09 continues to be a better place infant
07:11 mortality the likelihood of death at the
07:13 hands of another human deaths from
07:15 infectious disease and wealth inequality
07:17 between the poorest and wealthiest
07:19 nations continues to decline the number
07:22 of girls attending college global income
07:24 and great original scripted television
07:26 continue to increase we'll see you next
07:30 week
07:34 [Music]
07:46 [Music]