1) The Road Ahead In China For U.S. Tech--Kai-Fu Lee's Advice to Mark Zuckerberg
Sinovation Ventures (domain: sinovationventures.com) CEO Kai-Fu Lee, a former Google and Microsoft executive who led those companies' efforts in China, discusses the road ahead for U.S. tech companies in China on "Bloomberg Studio 1.0" with Emily Chang (Bloomberg.com video above published Dec 20, 2017). [Editor's note: Lee states the obvious painful truth, Silicon Valley--Facebook, Paypal, Google, Amazon, et al--in many cases, offers inferior technology to what is now available from Chinese tech companies, Tencent, Alibaba, et al. China is also now leading, or soon will be, in AI.]
Note also: Axios China | Axios.com: 3. The mystery of Miles Kwok, aka Guo Wengui, and Steve Bannon--"Kwok and Bannon's convergent views of the PRC, and their love of the spotlight, this could be an interesting partnership ... until it collapses in recrimination, as every partnership eventually seems to do for both men." [Editor's note: Kwok & Bannon: 'Two Dead Men Walking.'] 4. PRC to curtail bitcoin mining operations--"Beijing does not like Bitcoin."
2) Technology was the best sector of 2017:
HSW Advisors (domain: hightoweradvisors.com) managing partner Jordan Waxman on what sectors of the market did well in 2017 and how the GOP tax plan will influence the stock market in 2018. Fox Business video above published Dec 29, 2017.
Technology holdings--how three common market indices compare:
- The S&P 500 is 23% Technology. Top 5 tech names represent 13.4% of the entire index: Apple (3.8%), Microsoft (2.9%), Google (2.8%), Amazon (2.1%), and Facebook (1.8%).
- MSCI Emerging Markets are 28% Technology. The Top 5 Tech names are 18.0% of the whole index: Tencent (5.4%), Samsung (4.3%), Alibaba (3.6%), Taiwan Semi (3.5%), and Baidu (1.2%).
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 17% Technology. Top holdings: Apple (4.7%), IBM (4.3%), Visa (3.2%), Microsoft (2.4%), Intel (1.3%) and Cisco (1.1%).
3) Investing
Investing Notes:
- Byron Wien's predictions for 2018: #4: "... S&P 500 ends the year above 3000 since earnings continue to expand and economic growth heads toward 4%." #12: "The Mueller investigation of the 2016 presidential election fails to implicate any members of the Trump family in collusion with Russian operatives."
- Global Wealth Report 2017: Where Are We Ten Years after the Crisis? | Credit-Suisse.com: "Comparing wealth gains across countries, the United States is an unquestionable leader. The country continued its remarkable unbroken spell of gains after the financial crisis and added USD 8.5 trillion to the stock of global wealth. In other words, the US generated more than half of the total global wealth aggregation of USD 16.7 trillion of the past 12 months."
- Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist for GMO in Boston, well known for bearish views, says the stock market’s next move could take stocks dramatically higher--“As a historian of the great equity bubbles, I also recognize that we are currently showing signs of entering the blow-off or melt-up phase of this very long bull market”--Grantham's letter | gmo.com (pdf) to investors this week.
- Miami a haven for rich investors: "downtown development authority is working to bring down investment managers from the Northeast to Miami"--bizjournals.com.
- Blockchain: I’m in Awe of How Far the Scams & Stupidities around “Blockchain Stocks” are Going | WolfStreet.com: "This can happen only during the very late stage of a bubble."
- Bitcoin: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’ | Bloomberg.com: "You know bonds have an interest coupon, stocks have earnings and dividends, gold has nothing. There is nothing to support bitcoin except the hope that you will sell it to someone for more than you paid for it.”
- Momentous Change in US Natural Gas, with Global Impact | WolfStreet.com: "Even China is buying U.S. LNG. In 2017, the US became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time."
- Brexit: Switzerland too Falls Out of Love with the EU | WolfStreet.com: "the EU risks alienating a nation that jealously guards its independence, neutrality and national sovereignty more than arguably any other in Europe."
- The Core Problem Facing Every Investor Today | ZeroHedge.com: "we need to be painfully honest with ourselves about our sources of regret and target our investments accordingly. If we can be this honest with ourselves, it’s a VERY powerful strategy."
4) ICYMI Tech News:
- Meltdown and Spectre | meltdownattack.com. "Perhaps the Meltdown and Spectre bugs are the impetus for making long-overdue changes to the core DNA of the semiconductor industry and how chip architectures are designed."--Why Intel x86 must die: Our cloud-centric future depends on open source chips | ZDNet.com.
- German Court enjoins Amazon from using Google Adwords to place advertisements on Google search pages for "Brikenstock", "Birkenstok" or "Bierkenstock" which link to Amazon offers, some of which apparently offer fake Birkenstock shoes. "For us, Amazon is an accomplice," said Birkenstock CEO Oliver Reichert recently in SPIEGEL, adding, "I say it this way: Before the castle is under attack, the surrounding villages are looted. We have observed for some time, as lax Amazon deals with scammers who earn a fortune with counterfeiting."
- Tencent & Alibaba: Two Different Strategies--Tencent focuses on WeChat, games and deals for its global strategy while Alibaba is looking to build a global payment system. WeChat reportedly has more users, but Alipay’s aggregate transaction volume is higher, according to JP Morgan’s John Hall, though WeChat Pay can also process large transactions if it’s used on e-commerce platforms
- 18 Exponential Changes We Can Expect in the Year Ahead | TechnologyReview.com: "9. Sordid revelations in crypto-speculation will be outweighed by the wall of money entering the assets class."
- Google (Alphabet Inc. $GOOG $GOOGL) moved $19.2B to Bermuda shell company in 2016, to save $3.7B+ in taxes; money moved between Irish firms and Dutch firm with no staff--Google’s ‘Dutch Sandwich’ Shielded 16 Billion Euros From Tax | Bloomberg.com: "Google uses two structures, known as a "Double Irish" and a "Dutch Sandwich ..."
- U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) blocks sale of Moneygram (domain: moneygram) to China's Ant Financial (domain: antfin.com).
- Germany vs China re: Cybersecurity: "Germany's ambassador to China calls out China on their lack of progress on bilateral cybersecurity efforts"--CSOOnline.com.
- Inside the Eccentric, Unstoppable Deal-Making of Masayoshi Son | Bloomberg.com: "The Japanese billionaire ... Does he know what he’s doing?"
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
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