2019-04-10

Brexit Mar 29, 2019? Apr 12? Oct 31? - Jan 31, 2020

January 31, 2020: Congrats & Godspeed to the UK on its new beginning! #Brexit #Democracy #UnitedKingdom
2019 Dec 12 UK General Election Results: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party wins a large majority with 365 seats to Labour's 203, SNP 48, LibDem 11, DUP 8, Others 15.

Live coverage from ITV News as the results of the 2019 UK General Election come in. 

 See also @TelePolitics and @bbcelection and bbc.com/news/election/2019 and Results via Google.

During a General Election, UK voters in each local constituency select one MP (Minister of Parliament) to represent the local constituency in the UK House of Commons. The UK uses a first past the post voting system. This means that the MP that receives the most votes (plurality) will win the constituency's seat in parliament. The overall number of votes a party receives across the country is irrelevant, each MP is elected by local constituency. However, the 'winning party' must gain a majority number of seats in an election or be forced to form a coalition with another party in order to form a government.  Although there are a total of 650 seats in the House of Commons, the number of seats a party needs to claim an effective majority in the House of Commons may only be 320 seats.

Voters: anyone aged 18 or over can vote as long as they are registered and a British citizen or qualifying citizen of the Commonwealth or Republic of Ireland.

 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is projected to win a majority in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

 Nov 17, 2019: UK PM Boris Johnson pledges to end Brexit uncertainty, says it has paralyzed the economy.

 Nov 13, 2019: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised he would end the “unbearable” uncertainty around Brexit if he wins the December 12th election, saying that political paralysis was affecting investment decisions in the country.
SavantaComRes survey Nov. 13 and 14: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party 41% (up 1%), Labour 33%, pro-European Union Liberal Democrats 14%, and the Brexit Party 5%.
Nov 5:, 2019: The U.S. has pushed past Germany and France as the most common trading partner for businesses in the UK, and looks set to keep this position after the UK leaves the European Union, according to an annual survey by HSBC.

Oct 29, 2019: General Election on December 12th. 
Geoffrey Cox, Attorney General: "This Parliament Is A Disgrace!" (video).
Oct 28, 2019: France caves, EU Gives Brexit Extension to January 31, 2020.
Another Delay = more uncertainty = Recession.
Oct 25, 2019: Asked what France made of other EU countries’ preference for a long-term extension to Jan. 31, the French official said: “This period of uncertainty is toxic. What is the point of just giving time to time?”

 Deal or No-Deal Brexit October 31? [Editor's note: 589 of 650 MPs were elected in 2017 on a manifesto to get Brexit done.]
Oct 23: France to the Rescue? Macron [or someone else] may veto EU extension (Editor's note: that would be in the best interests of the EU, France, and the UK). France does not want the UK blocking its agenda in the European Parliament. France gains seats in the European Parliament if the UK leaves, but Germany does not. For many reasons it makes sense for French President Emmanuel Macron to help Boris Johnson.
"As one Brexiteer explained to me: We joined a simple trade agreement with open borders to the world, but that mission-crept into a closed economy heading towards an unlikely political union bound together in common currency that shackles most countries to perpetual penury, in a system designed and promoted by the French to pursue their 400 year historical goal of European hegemony."--Bill Blain.
Oct 22: House of Commons defeats "Programme motion" which in effect makes it impossible for Parliament (House of Commons and House of Lords) to pass the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill (pdf) before October 31, 2019, The "EU Bill" is "in limbo" now, subject to review by a House of Commons committee. Editor's note: it is now clear that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is holding the House of Commons accountable for its 'games' to delay and deny his 'Brexit deal.'  See also Pound, Stocks Slide As Plan For Whirlwind Brexit-Deal Votes Defeated - The final total: 308-322 (Oct 22, 2019).

House of Commons LIVE Video, Tuesday, Oct 22, 2019 (starts 11:30 am London).

 Oct 19: British Pound Tumbles 1% In Weekend Markets After Brexit Vote Delayed
UK House of Commons debate (video), Saturday, 19 October 2019.

 Oct 17: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson secures EU approval for 'no delay' Brexit deal. 
UPDATE 15 Oct 2019: UK and EU reportedly "closing in" on a 'Brexit deal' as negotiating teams work on legal text. See also An Alternative Perspective on the Enigmatic Brexit Process by  Steven Guinness: The Brexit Party "stand to be the main beneficiaries of another Article 50 extension."

 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday (Oct 6, 2019) that the UK could do a deal if the EU was willing.“But they should be under no illusions or misapprehensions,” he said, adding, “There will be no more dither or delay, on Oct. 31 we are going to get Brexit done.”

 Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, said on Monday (Sep 30, 2019) that Brexit would definitely take place on Oct. 31. When asked how Britain’s EU exit could take place, given that there is a law which orders the prime minister to seek a delay to Brexit if parliament has not approved a deal, Cummings said: “Well, we shall just have to see won’t we.” UK finance minister Sajid Javid has also said the UK will leave the EU on Oct. 31. Also: Brexit Irony: EU Rejects Its Own Proposal (Boris Johnson Proposed a Northern Ireland solution the EU originally proposed);

 "Get ready for Brexit. The UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019. Answer a few questions to find out how you or your business should prepare ..."--gov.uk/brexit
Oct 2, 2019: World Trade Organization (WTO) gave the U.S. approval to impose $7.5 billion in tariffs on E.U. goods to compensate for illegal EU subsidies to Airbus.  In addition to the 10% tariffs on aircraft, EU goods affected by 25% tariffs which go into effect October 18, 2019 (pdf), include cheese and dairy products, French wines, Scotch whisky, Irish whisky, and wool clothing from the UK. "For years, Europe has been providing massive subsidies to Airbus that have seriously injured the U.S. aerospace industry and our workers," said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in a statement Wednesday. Editor's note: the tariffs on UK goods, including Scotch whisky, will likely be dropped after the UK leaves the EU on October 31, 2019, when a new trade deal is negotiated between the UK and U.S. 
City of London, World Financial Centre: In a brief statement on Tuesday (Oct 8, 2019), the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) acknowledged that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) had dropped its $40 billion purchase offer (which LSEG had already rejected). In addition, LSEG reaffirmed it “remains committed to and makes good progress” on its proposed acquisition of Refinitiv, expected to be completed next year.

Interest Rate Derivatives Trading Explodes to $6.5 Trillion per day--volume of over-the-counter (OTC) interest rate derivatives traded globally soared by 141% in three years to $6.5 trillion per day in April 2019, according to the Bank for International Settlements’ new Triennial Survey of Global Derivatives Markets. Where most of the trading OTC interest rate derivatives takes place? City of London (UK); $3.7 trillion per day or 56% of all global trades were executed at trading desks in the United Kingdom, a 213% increase from the $1.18 trillion of average daily turnover in April 2016. (#2 is the U.S. at $2.35 trillion per day, or 32% of the global turnover, up 9.8% from $1.24 trillion in 2016). Even after three years of regulatory tussles with its biggest trading partner, the EU, the UK has not only maintained its grip on the vast and fast growing OTC derivatives markets, it’s strengthened it, pulling away from New York and leaving Paris in the dust. “London is the capital of capital and this report shows that despite challenging times, the fundamentals of the City remain strong,” said Catherine McGuinness, policy chair at the City of London Corporation, the municipal governing body.

UK trading also dominates in global currency markets. In April 2019, its FX trading desks generated a turnover of $3.58 trillion per day, up from $2.41 trillion per day in 2016, taking its share of total global FX activity from 37% to 43%. By contrast, the US share of trading declined during the same period from 20% to 17%.
Financial analytics firm Mosaic Smart Data has doubled the number of developers and quantitative analysts it employs since 2018 at its London base, where nearly 40 now crunch numbers to help banks trade foreign exchange and bonds. “London is hard to beat ... The depth and diversity of the skill pool here is unrivalled,” said Matthew Hodgson, founder of Mosaic, one of the new fintech companies in the forex industry.
Even Dutch bank ING chose London to centralize its forex trading operations, previously scattered across various cities. ING’s global forex and rates boss Gary Prince said it was more efficient to run everything from ING's London offices.
Meanwhile, M&G Prudential is proceeding with its $1.1 billion ‘Gotham’ Project in London's financial district, consisting of 905,000 square feet (about 84,000 square meters) of office space at 40 Leadenhall Street. And Goldman Sachs has set up a disaster recovery trading floor in a WeWork (WE) space in central London to allow the bank to continue operating in the event of a major disaster, the Financial Times reports. The space replaces an existing site on Paternoster Square near the London Stock Exchange, and is a "near-site business continuity location," where Goldman's most critical London traders could quickly relocate if an emergency affected its new £1.2B European headquarters at nearby Plumtree Court.

See also London retains global finance throne amid Brexit chaos and Euro Derivatives Trading: Andrew Bailey, chief executive of Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority, has said it's for the EU to act to avoid overlaps in derivatives trading: “Currently all OTC derivatives subject to the EU DTO have their main pool of liquidity on a UK venue ... Without action, EU firms may lose access to UK liquidity pools and liquidity would be fragmented, harming both markets." There are 11 trading platforms in the EU27 that market participants could use, with nearly 40 in the United States endorsed by the EU, along with five in Singapore;  and Brexit prompts ESM to switch out of English bond law--Eurozone’s bailout fund to instead use Luxembourg law for its future borrowings starting October.

Dutch Ports Brexit Handbook
"Rotterdam’s port business community is busily preparing for Brexit. After all: the best-prepared port will have a preferential position within the European playing field."--Dutch Ports Brexit Handbook  (pdf). Brexit impact on the Netherlands: 55% of shortsea traffic and 90% of ro-ro transhipment via Dutch ports concerns trade with the United Kingdom.--https://www.getreadyforbrexit.eu/en/

10 Aug 2019 Update-- No-Deal Brexit October 31, 2019: Still More 'Remainer' Delusions--'Whiners & Remoaners'--Still Confused? Read  Eurointelligence.com: "Today we would like to debunk the myth that the UK parliament can stop the no-deal Brexit. Under EU law - the law that matters in this specific discussion - there are only two technical possibilities for the UK parliament to frustrate an October 31st Brexit. The first and the only certain route is a majority in favour of unilateral revocation of Brexit. No such majority exists. This leaves a less certain pathway: to seek a further Art. 50 extension. Since Boris Johnson refuses to do this, it would have to involve a new prime minister before October ... So, before we get to the constitutionally tricky question of what would happen in case Johnson simply refuses to go even if parliament were to huddle around an alternative, we better stop at this point and look at the numbers. They are not there. The numbers for unilateral revocation are not there either. This means that parliament cannot stop a no-deal Brexit on its own." --Or as Dominic Cummings, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's most senior adviser, recently said, "Politicians don't get to choose which votes they respect." Therefore, unless the European Union abandons its insistence on the thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement, a no-deal Brexit will happen October 31, 2019.

Original Brexit Date: 29 March 2019, 11:00 P.M. (London), then extended to Friday, 12 April 2019.
10 Apr 2019: EU leaders agreed to extend UK's exit date to October 31, 2019.

Previously on DomainMondo.com:
Links:


 Looking back at Theresa May's dysfunctional government: Theresa May's Brexit statement (video) to the House of Commons after emergency EU summit 11 April 2019. Theresa May gave a statement to the House of Commons after being granted another Brexit extension by the European Union until 31 October 2019. See also European Council (Art. 50) Press conference at end of meeting 10 April 2019. Other news sources: DW News Livestream  (Deutsche Welle is Germany’s international broadcaster), and FRANCE 24 Live news from Paris, France, via YouTube.

 Special European Council (Art.50), April 10, 2019, 18:00 in Brussels (12 noon EDT). Agenda highlights: EU27 leaders will meet on 10 April 2019 to discuss the latest developments on Brexit. "In view of the rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons, I have decided to call a European Council on 10 April," confirmed President Donald Tusk on 29 March, following the vote in the UK House of Commons.

On 5 April Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, sent a letter to Donald Tusk (pdf), President of the European Council, asking for a further extension to the Article 50 period. She proposed the date of 30 June 2019, adding that the UK government would continue to prepare to hold European Parliament elections should the UK still be a member at the time of the elections.

On 21 March EU27 leaders decided to delay the Brexit date until 12 April 2019, should the withdrawal agreement be rejected.
Original posting title: "Emergency European Summit on Brexit, Wednesday, April 10"

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